Simcoe County Home Prices Fell More Than the Average Shows

September was the weakest month for sales in Simcoe County this year. There were 611 sales, down 15.8 per cent from the 726 recorded in September 2025. New listings fell 13.8 per cent to 2,147 and the number of homes for sale fell 5.2 per cent to 4,305 (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board [TRREB], 2026). Sales dropped faster than the number of homes for sale, which leaves buyers with more to choose from and more room to negotiate.

Now the part that needs care. The average sale price was $768,850, down 2.9 per cent from a year ago. The typical home value, which TRREB measures with the MLS® Home Price Index by following the price of a similar home over time, was $762,300, down 7.21 per cent (TRREB, 2026). Those two numbers describe the same market and they are 4.3 points apart.

In August the two numbers were almost identical. A month later the gap is ten times wider, and the average is the one that looks better. The typical home value is the one to believe. Fewer lower-priced homes sold in September, and that pulls the average up without any home actually selling for more. Condo apartment sales fell 35.3 per cent and detached sales in the City of Barrie fell 28.2 per cent, both from a year ago.

Detached homes were 465 of the 611 sales, at an average of $831,977, down 1.7 per cent (TRREB, 2026). The typical detached home value was $798,200, down 6.76 per cent, and the typical condo apartment value was down 13.73 per cent.

Across the county, homes sold for an average of 96 per cent of their asking price and took an average of 46 days to sell, two days longer than a year ago. There were 6.3 months of supply, meaning that at the current pace of sales it would take about six months to sell every home listed (TRREB, 2026).

Muskoka is not part of TRREB's Simcoe County report, so it has to be sourced separately. In the third quarter, 187 detached waterfront properties sold across Muskoka, down 7 per cent from a year earlier. The median price for the quarter was about $1.24 million, up 16 per cent, while months of supply rose to 8.2 from 6.9 and only 40 per cent of listings sold, down from 48 per cent (Finding Your Muskoka, 2026b).

Keep the scale in mind. Barrie alone recorded 130 sales in September. Muskoka's entire detached waterfront market recorded 187 across three months.

The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent on 2 September. Its next decision is on 28 October 2026 (Bank of Canada, 2026b).

Inflation was 3.0 per cent in August, the same as July. In Ontario it was 2.4 per cent. The September figure comes out on 19 October, after this report (Statistics Canada, 2026a).

TRREB said part of September's slowdown came from a recent rise in fixed mortgage rates, and that some buyers are waiting for more certainty on trade with the United States (TRREB, 2026).

Rates are reported here as market information only. Which mortgage suits a particular purchase, renewal or refinance is a question for a licensed mortgage professional. I am registered to trade in real estate, not licensed to advise on mortgages, and I do not give rate advice.

Trade with the United States reaches housing here in two ways. The first is cost. Canada's counter-tariffs, in effect since 8 September, apply to building materials including plywood, steel and lumber (Department of Finance Canada, 2026). The Residential Construction Council of Ontario estimates they add $9,000 to $14,000 to the cost of building a typical single-detached home in Ontario (Ontario builders brace for significant cost increases, 2026). Over time, higher building costs tend to support the value of existing homes.

The second is confidence. TRREB noted that some buyers are waiting for more certainty on trade before they commit (TRREB, 2026), and that is showing up in September's sales. Locally, Barrie's unemployment rate was 7.1 per cent in August. There is no trade agreement between Canada and the United States as at the date of this report.

Typical home values did not fall evenly across the county. Barrie is down 5.14 per cent, Orillia 5.05 per cent and Oro-Medonte 5.83 per cent. Along Georgian Bay and the Severn corridor they barely moved: Penetanguishene down 0.19 per cent, Midland 0.48, Severn 0.98 and Tiny 1.10 (TRREB, 2026). That is a five-point spread inside one county in one month.

Be careful what you conclude from it. The places where values held steady are also the ones with the most homes for sale and the slowest sales: Tiny at 9.0 months of supply and selling at 92 per cent of asking, Ramara at 11.3 months and an average of 95 days to sell, against Barrie at 5.2 months, 98 per cent of asking and 40 days. A steady value where few homes sell is not the same thing as strength. It often means too few homes are selling to show where prices really are.

• Detached homes, 465 of the county's 611 sales, with the average detached price down only 1.7 per cent from a year ago.
• Homes between $600,000 and $900,000, which made up 276 of the 611 sales.
• Barrie and Orillia, with the lowest months of supply in the county at 5.2 and 4.6, selling at 98 and 96 per cent of asking in an average of 40 days.
• Haliburton and Parry Sound in cottage country, where prices rose 4.2 and 7.7 per cent over the last twelve months.

• Condo apartments. Thirty-three sales county-wide, down 35.3 per cent from a year ago, with the typical condo apartment value down 13.73 per cent.
• Ramara, at 11.3 months of supply, selling at 92 per cent of asking and taking an average of 95 days, on nine sales.
• Tiny, at 9.0 months of supply and 92 per cent of asking, and Tay at 94 per cent of asking.
• The top of the county market. Twenty-five of 611 sales were above $1.5 million.
• The top of the Muskoka market. Sales over $3 million fell from 27 to 15 in the third quarter.